Weak Governance and Climate Stress Fuel Armed Groups’ Control of Natural Resources in Sub-Saharan Africa

Across sub-Saharan Africa, armed groups are increasingly exploiting weaknesses in state governance to obtain and consolidate control over critical natural resources, a trend that is enabling them to expand both their material capabilities and political influence. The phenomenon is not uniform: armed actors exert varying levels of control, from levying informal taxes on extraction and transit to seizing outright control of production and local supply chains. Nonetheless, the overall effect is a more durable resource base for nonstate violence and a corresponding erosion of state authority in affected areas.

The ability of armed groups to derive value from resources rests in part on governance vacuums. Where state presence is limited, regulatory oversight is weak and law enforcement capacity is insufficient, natural resources become easier to exploit illicitly. Remoteness, porous borders and under-resourced institutions create permissive environments in which extraction, smuggling and informal markets can flourish. In these settings, armed actors can monetize resources to fund recruitment, procure weapons and supplies, and build patronage networks that confer local legitimacy or compliance.

Resource-linked revenues also translate into political leverage. By controlling access to valuable commodities and the income streams they generate, armed groups can exert influence over local populations and authorities alike. That control may take nonviolent forms—such as providing services, mediating disputes or administering taxation—or violent coercion, including the expulsion of competing actors and the intimidation of communities. Over time, the intertwining of economic and security functions can entrench insurgent governance structures and complicate efforts to reassert state control.

Climate stress is expected to intensify these dynamics. Increasingly frequent and severe climate-related shocks—drought, erratic rainfall, floods and land degradation—threaten livelihoods, undermine formal economies and heighten competition for land, water and other resources. As vulnerable communities face shrinking options for income and subsistence, the relative appeal of, or susceptibility to, armed actors that can provide material benefits or protection may grow. In this sense, the environmental changes projected in the coming years are likely to reinforce the link between resource competition and insecurity.

The consequences of this trend are multi-dimensional. For states, the erosion of revenue bases and territorial control undermines governance capacity and complicates the restoration of legitimate authority. For civilians, the convergence of violent competition over resources and worsening environmental conditions can exacerbate displacement, food insecurity and humanitarian need. For regional and international actors, the embedding of insurgent economies into resource sectors raises risks for investment, trade routes and cross-border stability.

Addressing the problem requires a combination of security, governance and development measures. Strengthening local and national institutions to regulate resource extraction, improving law enforcement and border controls, and providing alternative livelihoods to vulnerable populations can reduce opportunities for armed groups to profit from natural resources. Equally important are targeted measures to increase climate resilience—such as sustainable land management, water-resource planning and support for climate-adaptive agriculture—that reduce pressure on scarce resources and the incentives for violent competition.

International cooperation can play a supporting role by enhancing technical capacity, financing governance reforms and coordinating efforts to disrupt illicit resource flows. However, responses must be calibrated to local contexts: interventions that fail to account for the social, economic and political dynamics in resource-rich areas risk unintended consequences. The persistence of insurgent control over natural resources in parts of sub-Saharan Africa suggests that piecemeal or short-term measures will be insufficient to reverse trends that are likely to be reinforced by climate-related stresses.

Ultimately, the interplay between weak governance, resource exploitation and climate stress presents a sustained challenge to stability and development across the region. As armed groups continue to translate access to natural resources into stronger material and political capacities, policymakers and practitioners face a complex task: to restore effective governance and resilience in resource-rich areas before the accelerating impacts of environmental change further entrench conflict dynamics.