Surveys show Ukrainians largely optimistic about the future while Russian pessimism surges; Kyiv names new defence minister

Two recent opinion surveys present a strikingly different picture of public sentiment on either side of the frontline. In Ukraine, a Gradus poll carried out ahead of the country’s 35th Independence Day asked 1,000 respondents aged 18 to 60 about their views of the future. The company found that 65% of respondents "вірять у краще життя в майбутньому, а головними емоціями щодо нього є суміш надії та тривоги." That optimism has shown only modest fluctuation over the last three years, sliding from 68% in August 2023 to 61% in August 2024, according to the research firm.

Gradus’s findings underline a complex emotional landscape among Ukrainians: belief in eventual improvement exists alongside fears and doubts. The poll reports that many respondents contemplate their prospects with both hope (47%) and anxiety (43%), with other prevalent emotions including optimism, confusion and fear. Analysts say this blend of resilience and apprehension shapes public expectations as the war continues.

In contrast, public mood in Russia appears to be deteriorating. Data published by the state-affiliated All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) show that in July 2026 some 66% of Russians said they believe the country’s most difficult times are still ahead – the highest level of pessimism recorded since April 2020, when 72% responded similarly. An additional 12% of respondents said Russia is currently "переживає кризу." Sociologist and political analyst Дмитро Дубровський commented on the shift, saying: "Початок війни – це (для росіян) був шок. Потім була адаптація, люди з війною змирилися. А зараз у них іде руйнування горизонту майбутнього. Люди кажуть: далі буде гірше, і самі готуються до гіршого." He attributed the rise in pessimism to an erosion of citizens’ expectations about their future prospects.

The week also brought a significant personnel change in Kyiv. On 19 August the Verkhovna Rada confirmed Євгеній Хмара as Ukraine’s new defence minister, with 312 deputies voting in favour. Khmara replaces Михайло Федоров and becomes the fifth person to hold the post since the large-scale Russian invasion. A major general by rank, Khmara spent most of his career within the SBU’s Centre for Special Operations "Alpha," participated in combat after the 2022 invasion and later led that unit. His appointment places an officer with direct frontline and special-operations experience at the head of the defence ministry during a protracted war.

Military and civil-defence challenges continued to evolve. Ukrainian air-defence forces have recently faced an increase in the use of guided, rocket-propelled assault drones from Russia, designated by Moscow as "Герань-4 Сікер." These weapons are flown under operator control rather than being dispatched to fixed coordinates, complicating interception. The armed forces report that in some strikes these drones comprised as much as two-thirds of the attacking unmanned aerial vehicles. Reporters from the Donbas Realii project interviewed crew members of the 1129th anti-aircraft missile Bilotserkivskyi Regiment, who described the tactical and human risks associated with countering the new drones.

Beyond the battlefield, practical protections for civilians and displaced people have been affected by recent policy changes in the EU. Since 5 August, the EU and Belgian authorities have begun implementing a new Council decision that limits temporary protection eligibility for certain military-age men, known as the "Reserve+" measure. Lawyers and volunteer organisations assisting Ukrainian refugees say they have observed a surge in refusals and delays in temporary protection determinations in Belgium and elsewhere, affecting not only men of conscription age but also some women and teenagers approaching adulthood. Projects focused on migration issues have documented inconsistent decisions by migration officers, and the European Commission has been asked to clarify what has changed and why similar cases receive different outcomes.

The week’s coverage also included cultural-historical pieces and cross-references to other security and diplomatic developments, such as analyses by ISW and reports of continued use of foreign components in Russian UAV production, but the dominant themes remain public morale, civilian protection and governance during wartime. The diverging survey results from Gradus and VTsIOM highlight how citizens’ expectations and fears shape societies under prolonged conflict — influencing political debate, military planning and the design of refugee and social-protection policies in Ukraine, Russia and neighbouring states.